Guides

How first-buy decisions are actually made in distribution, what the standard method misses, and the economics underneath it. Written for buyers, not for search engines.

  • How to determine the initial order quantity for a new product
    The standard method — comparable products, a sales-rep sanity check and a 10–15% buffer — is sound but incomplete. What it leaves out is the spread, and the economics that turn a spread into a quantity.
  • Why your sales history understates demand
    Sales records what you shipped, not what customers wanted. For any item that ever ran out, those differ — and the bias always points the same way. A worked example you can rebuild in Excel.
  • What a minimum order quantity really costs
    The price break is on the quote; the carrying cost and the liquidation loss are not. A worked example, the break-even sell-through to negotiate with, and the four routes to a smaller minimum.
  • The newsvendor model, explained for buyers
    One order, uncertain demand, two unequal costs. The classic result without the calculus, with the distribution-side caveats that matter when the product has no sales history.
  • First buy vs. safety stock
    Both answer uncertainty; they answer different questions. Why the safety-stock formula misfires on a new item, what replaces it, and when to switch from one to the other.
The tools

Initial Order Quantity Calculator · MOQ Risk Calculator · Newsvendor Calculator

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